Sunday 30 October 2011

Regrets and The Gold Price

Should you sell if your gold position is "losing money"...?

I HAD this conversation with my friend's son, says Jeff Clark, editor of Big Gold at Casey Research.

He's a bright but relatively young investor. He had purchased some gold based on some things I'd told his father. Shortly afterward, the price dropped hard. As you'll see, he was not very happy with my advice and said so in an email to me. So I called him...

Me: Sounds like you're upset.

My friend's son: Yeah, that's putting it mildly. What the hell am I supposed to do now?

Me: Because the Gold Price has dropped?

My friend's son: Yes! It's down 15% in a month! I thought you said this was going to be a good investment.

Me: It is. And it will be. You might even consider buying more here if you have the funds.

My friend's son: I have some other money, but why would I put it in gold? It's losing money.

Me: Because it's on sale. Because it's cheaper now than when you bought it. And especially because none of the reasons for buying it have gone away.

My friend's son: That doesn't mean it's going to go back up.

Me: As I told your dad, there are no guarantees, but I think it will have to go higher. Either way, it will hold its purchasing power over time. We're holding it as an alternate currency, a more sound form of money that can't be debased.

My friend's son: Yeah, well, my money just got debased, big time. It needs to go up 20% for me just to get back to even.

Me: Five years from now your Dollars will have lost at least 10% of their value, based just on current trends. There's a good chance it will lose more than that. And gold will probably rise more than 10% a year. At some point it''s likely to go into a bubble.

My friend's son: [silence.]

Me: Look, I know you're upset, but I'd hate to see you bail. This is one of the best investments we can make this decade.

My friend's son [relenting a little bit]: You really believe that.

Me: I can't promise you anything, but yes, I do.

My friend's son: And that's because you think inflation is coming.

Me: It's for a lot of reasons, and that's one of them. Inflation is virtually baked in the cake; the Dollar's long-term problems will be impractical to resolve; and the global economy is on high alert. This is exactly the kind of circumstances gold is for.

My friend's son: Then why is it falling?

Me: Institutions need cash and liquidity, and gold offers a bid. Besides, nothing goes up in a straight line, and gold had just run up 35%. It was time for a break.

My friend's son: So this big drop really doesn't worry you.

Me: It doesn't. I'm buying. In fact, I'll prove it to you – send me your gold and I'll buy it from you.

My friend's son: [Silence.]

Me: I know it doesn't feel good right now, and it may take some time for it to make another new high, but gold is too important not to own here. It's a long-term trade, so plan on holding it for a while. In fact, if it helps, just forget about the fact that you own it – go do something fun and have a beer at the pub.

My friend's son: [a little chuckle].

Me: I don't think you made a mistake buying at the price you did, in spite of it being lower now. Odds are high you'll be happy in a few years.

My friend's son: [pause] All right...

I'm glad my friend's son decided to hold on, because that conversation took place in June, 2006. He'd bought gold at around $700 and watched a month later as the price fell to as low as $567.

Gold ended up declining a total of 21% in just five weeks before bottoming, after a run-up of 35% (sound familiar?). And yes, it took over a year before it hit a new high.

Yet my friend's son – now older and wiser – wishes he could go back in time and make the same mistake again and Buy Gold at $700. His investment is sitting on more than a double, in spite of buying at a temporary peak.

I think that a few years from now we'll all wish we could go "back in time" and Buy Gold at $1,700. And I believe you'll still feel that way if gold falls to $1,500, as some writers are projecting.

I think this because circumstances now are worse – and hence more bullish for gold – than they were in 2006. Look at how much money we've printed (the monetary base now exceeds $2.6 trillion, a mind-boggling 200% increase since 2006). Look at the state of the global economy – highly vulnerable and propped up by governments. 

Consider the lingering and inescapable predicament of many European nations – scare tactics aside, how, exactly, will this be resolved in a healthy way? Ask yourself if the outlook for the US Dollar is out of the woods (roughly 10% of federal revenue goes solely to debt payments, a figure that is projected to triple). 

Explain how the reckless path of deficit spending will shift without causing some kind of major impact on the economy (history shows abject deficit spending leads to economic downfall, virtually without exception). Tell me how we avoid massive inflation, an outcome that seems so certain at this point that about the only way to avoid it would be a massive global meltdown – and even then, the Fed would surely print to oblivion.

Like I told my son's friend, nothing is guaranteed. But until real interest rates are positive again, government leaders instigate honest solutions to our debts and deficits, the global economy becomes an engine of growth, the sovereign debt issues in Europe are genuinely resolved, and global currencies – especially the US Dollar – are strong again, I'm Buying Gold.

Yes, there will be volatility. And yes, a short-term "solution" to what seems like certain default in Greece, for example, would cause some investors to sell gold. But like in the spring of 2006, these are temporary, short-term fixes only. For the tumult that is most likely ahead, there simply isn't any better currency protection than gold and silver.

Get the safest gold at the lowest possible price – thanks to BullionVault's live online market...

Jeff Clark, 28 Oct '11

JEFF CLARK is editor and lead writer of BIG GOLD, the monthly gold-investment newsletter from Doug Casey's Casey Research. Having worked on his family's gold claims in California and Arizona, and analyzing the big trends in gold's bull market, Jeff and his team aim to highlight safe and profitable ways for the prudent investor to capitalize on today's long-term rise.

Http://goldnews.bullionvault.com/gold_price_102820114

Friday 14 October 2011

Nape harga emas jatuh mendadak? Tahu apa sebab nya? Baca kat bawah ni...

Harga emas jatuh mendadak
2011/09/27

Pengukuhan nilai dolar AS antara punca penyusutan hampir 20 peratus

ALIRAN kenaikan jangka panjang emas terhenti selepas mencapai kemuncaknya tiga minggu lalu dengan kejatuhan hampir 20 peratus daripada paras tertinggi yang dicatat pada 6 September lalu.

Kontrak semasa emas semalam terus mengalami penyusutan dengan kejatuhan 5.8 peratus kepada AS$1,561.69 seauns kejatuhan harian terbesar sejak Oktober 2008.
Penganalisis berkata, kejatuhan mendadak harga logam berharga itu sejak kebelakangan ini adalah berikutan pengukuhan dolar Amerika Syarikat (AS), penjualan oleh dana lindung nilai untuk mendapat tunai bagi menampung kerugian di pasaran lain serta ketidaktentuan terhadap daya tarikan emas sebagai instrumen pelaburan selamat.
Bagi kontrak semasa perak, yang mana harganya lebih berkait rapat dengan pertumbuhan ekonomi susulan kegunaan dalam industri, mencapai paras terendah sejak Januari dan susut 45 peratus daripada paras tertinggi yang dicatat pada April.

Ahli Ekonomi Kanan Penyelidikan UOB, Alvin Liew, berkata sebelum ini tunai digunakan untuk melabur dalam komoditi khususnya emas dan perak.

Bagaimanapun, katanya emas kini bukan lagi instrumen menarik untuk melindungi pelaburan daripada inflasi susulan masalah hutang Eropah dan jangkaan inflasi Amerika Syarikat (AS).

Kedua-dua masalah itu menyaksikan dana mengalir kembali ke AS, yang mana menyaksikan peningkatan semula nilai dolar.
Namun begitu, dalam jangka panjang, emas masih memiliki nilainya yang tersendiri dan harganya akan meningkat dalam tempoh akan datang, jelasnya.

Bagi Ketua Penyelidikan Komoditi, Pengurusan Kekayaan UBS, Dominic Schnider, berkata dari sudut teknikal, emas masih belum memasuki jajaran terlebih jualan dan secara keseluruhannya aliran kenaikan kini semakin pudar.

Harga komoditi itu dijangka meningkat semula kerana sebelum ini, kami sudah menyaksikan peningkatan permintaan fizikal yang kukuh terhadap komoditi itu khususnya dari Asia dan secara bermusim, ia akan memasuki tempoh permintaan tinggi, katanya.

Pakar Ekonomi Serantau Penyelidik CIMB, Song Seng Wun, berkata ramai yang memperkatakan mengenai risiko emas akan memasuki jajaran terlebih belian, namun ia meningkat naik sejak empat tahun lalu.

Dengan tekanan kemelesetan meningkat, berlaku peralihan pelaburan kepada instrumen yang benar-benar selamat iaitu dolar AS dan Perbendaharaan AS, katanya.

Sementara itu, Penganalisis Phillip Futures, Ong Yi Ling, berkata kini harga emas sudah susut ke bawah paras purata 100 hari dan 150 hari dan ia memberi isyarat aliran penurunan akan berlaku dalam jangka pendek.

Untuk jangka panjang, selepas harganya kembali stabil dan keadaan kembali normal, instrumen pelaburan selamat itu akan kembali meningkat, katanya. Reuters


sumber dari http://www.bharian.com.my/bharian/articles/Hargaemasjatuhmendadak/Article

Belia Malaysia disarankan menyimpan emas sebagai simpanan!

Assalamualaikum dan selamat sejahtera sume! Ada baik ka? Mmmm... Arini saya nak share satu artikel yg saya jumpak masa saya pekene roti tampal kat kedai mamak aritu. Artikel ni di bahagian Klasified  Harian Metro bertarikh 12/10/2011. Hari rabu yang lepas. Bole check kalo ada lagi paper ni kat rumah tu. Tajuk dia, BELIA DISARAN SIMPAN EMAS 5% DARIPADA PENDAPATAN.


Artikel ni berkisar mengenai ulasan Dato' Salleh Majid mengenai mengapa kita kene beli emas untuk gantikan simpanan wang ringgit kita. Nape ek?

Seperti yang kami dh bagitau dulu, kenaikan emas melebihi dari kenaikan pelaburan2 yang lain. A*B, 8%-10% setahun. Mutual fund pon lebih kurang tu gak! FD, pon sama gak! Tapi emas? Kenaikan nya dari 20%-30% setahun!!! So, mana lagi untung? Bak kata Nabil, "Lu pikir la sendiri!'.

Dengan kadar inflasi semasa kita, bole ke pelaburan selain dari EMAS dapat cover balik kadar inflasi kita nih!? Ni kat bawah ni, kami tunjuk kadar inflasi semasa kat Malaysia.


Data ni, bole dapat kat http://tradingeconomics.com/malaysia/inflation-cpi. Kat web ni, sume benda korang leh tgk! Macam skang, kadar inflasi dah hampir kepada 4%! So, kalo pulangan pon terhegeh-hegeh nak dapat 9%, camna nak counter ngan kadar inflasi tu? Tolak 4%, tinggal 5%. So, bape je yang dapat? Nak tanya gak, NAK 5% ke NAK BELAS2 %?

Tapi ada gak orang tanya, BETUI KA EMAS NI NAIK KAW MCM TU!? Ni kat bawah ni ada data nya...

YEAR 2010
Chart ni lak, leh tgk kat www.kitco.com. Nak tgk bape tahun pon bole... Kira sendiri je kalo rajin... So, kita amik contoh tahun 2010 ni. Andai kata tahun lepas, bulan Januari, kita beli dgn harga USD 1100/oz dan pada Disember, price close pada USD 1400/oz. Bape percent kenaikan dia? Ni bawah ni camna nak kira dia.

[(Close price - Open price) / Close price] * 100 = % kenaikan
[(1400 - 1100) / 1400] * 100 = 21.4%

So, kenaikan untuk tahun 2010 je dah 21%! Nak tanya gak... Nak lagi ke yang 8% tu...? Ok, untuk tahun 2009 lak!

YEAR 2009
So, perkiraan nya, ikut la macam tadi. Teman udah kira, dapat 22%! Mmmm... Tah la mekome sume.... Kalo nak kira lagi tahun yg sebelumnya, bole la bukak website tadi, kire la kalo ada masa lapang nnt...

So, agak2, dapat tak kenaikan EMAS ni tapau kadar inflasi kita? Mesti la bole kan... Untuk masa yang mendatang, idok le teman bole gerenti.... Tapi sejarah menceritakan sume nye... :) Tepok dada, tanya IMAN...

Sebagai kesimpulannya, memang betul saranan Dato Salleh Majid tu. Belia harus buka minda dari sekarang! Jgn menyimpan duit AKA wang fiat (yang xde intrinsic value tu!). Simpan ler emas... Macam yang kami kata, EMAS BUKAN untuk dapatkan PULANGAN JANGKA PENDEK. Tapi MID TO LONG TERM punya. Tapi kalo nak yang jangka pendek, ada gak caranya... Nak ngan taknak je cari ilmu nye... InsyaAllah, ada masa kami akan share. So, pada belia yang nak kawin ke hape ke, bole la usha2 note kami yang lain dalam blog ni. Ada la simple calculation yg kami buat untuk sume lebih paham tentang emas ni... Pada yang masih tercari2 dimana kelebihan EMAS ni, bole la kontek kami atau pon geng2 wang sunnah yang berdekatan ngan anda. Kalo kat gombak, ada Haji Yussof. Kalo kat Klang atau Tampin, bole kontek Izwan... Kat sbelah tu ada no nye... So, SELAMAT BERAMAL YA!!!!

Nota kaki (Pui! Busuk!):

Nape kene beli EMAS?
1. Emas ada PELINDUNG NILAI tunai anda. Nnt harga barang naik, xde la problem lagi...
2. Emas wajib berada dalam portfolio pelaburan sume org sebab EMAS STABIL!
3. Emas dpt MEMPERKASAKAN EKONOMI seseorang individu itu dan bole dikongsi melalui ilmu dan zakat.
4. HARGA EMAS TGH TURUN SKANG! Beli sbelum anda MELOPONG TGK HARGA DIA NAIK... Huhuhuhu....

Kami bukan nak kelentong, KAMI MAU TOLONG.... :)

Pengasas Wang Sunnah;
Zailiya Mohamad Yatim 0166160951
Marzlishah B. Zubir @ Omar 0166160952
FB : Wang Sunnah
Blog : http://rahsiawangsunnah.blogspot.com

Monday 10 October 2011

Pesara DiSaran simpan EMAS daripada wang pencen.

PESARA DISARAN SIMPAN EMAS DARIPADA WANG PENCEN. ~ Berita Harian 10.10.11

Assalamualaikum.... Tajuk ini amat menarik perhatian saya... Terpanggil utk menulis kalini pengalaman kehidupan.... Contoh seorg warga emas... En Abu Pencen pada umur 55 thn. Mempunyai simpanan KWSP RM300k (gaji syiling RM 3000 dan potongan epf 11% permonth)

Pada umur 55 thn, en abu memiliki cash sebanyak RM 300k. Jika dia pandai menguruskan cash yg dimiliki... Dia mungkin x perlu bekerja hingga ke akhir hayat... Tetapi kebanyakan daripada warga emas.. X mempunyai ilmu untuk mengurus saki baki duit tabungan yg diabuat selama 30 tahun... Dan munkin akan menghabiskan tabungan 30 tahun tersebut dalam masa 3 tahun! Dan selepas itukembali bekerja... Selagi kudrat masih mengizinkan.....

En abu telah membelanjakan......
1. RM 15,000 per pax utk keperluan haji dia dan isteri. Total RM30k
2. REnovation rumah RM 100k.
3. Perbelanjaan kehidupan RM 2k per month x 3 years = RM72k
4. Melunaskan hutang lapok = RM 20k.
5. Sponsor perkahwinan anak2 = RM 60k
6. Berhibur/vacation = RM 20k.

Grand Total : RM 302k.

Nampak macam banyak je RM 300k tu? Tapi kalo x mempunyai ilmu utk menguruskan kewangan anda... Anda mungkin akan bekerja hingga ke akhir hayat anda! Ni realitynya... Masa bekerja tidak mempunyai sebarang simpanan... Tetapi banyak hutang terhimpun... Masa KWSP dapat selepuk la baru kita nak selesaikan segala2nya... Pernah x terpikir yang duit yg dikumpul selama 30 tahun tu x dapat menampung perbelanjaan selepas bersara? Ditambah pula ngan SUSUT NILAI wang kertas yg kita MILIKI akibat INFLASI?

Bagaimana nak mengurus wang simpanan KWSP selepas bersara? Banyak cara sebenarnya... Antara yg termudah ialah convertkan semua mata wang tersebut kepada emas fizikal... Fakta daripada rekod kenaikan emas tahun2 yg lepas... 'walau apa pun yg berlaku, nilai emas tidak pernah susut. Emas dilihat sebagai pelindung nilai paling selamat dalam situasi ekonomi yg tidak menentu'

Rekod kenaikan emas selama 5 tahun sebelom ni ialah sebanyak 250%, menjadikan purata kenaikan emas sebanyak 50% setahun. Jika en abu membeli RM 300k emas pada tahun 2006, nilai emas yg dimiliki pada hai ini ialah RM 750k. Terpikir bagaimana nak gunakan sedikit daripada wang simpanan KWSP utk perbelanjaan? Mudah... Kata lah... En abu memerlukan RM 2k setiap bulan utk perbelanjaan. Maka... RM 300k - (6 bulan x RM 2k = 12k) = RM 288k beli emas. Setelah 6 bulan, duit perbelanjaan habis, maka... Jual sedikit dari jumlah emas uk ampung perbelanjaan bulanan... Tapi... Kena ingat... Masa tu nilai emas RM 288k bukan g mempunyai nilai yg sama... Kita congak.. Tadi setahun kenaikan average 50%, 6 bulan = setengah tahun = 50% /2 = 25%.

Cer kita congak RM 288k x 25% = RM 72k kenaikan selama 6 bulan.
                      Nilai emas semasa = RM 360k!

Nampak tak? En abu telah menjana pendapatannya sendiri... X perlu lagi nak mengharapkan ehsan sesiapa untuk menghabiskan sisa2 kehidupan... Dan x perlu berfikir utk bekerja... Aman melakukan amal ibadah... insya Allah! Itu baru kaedah simpanan bawah bantal... Belom lagi kaedah2 yg lain... Memanipulasi simpanan emas untuk menjana pendapatan... :D (nak tahu? Bole contact kami, wang sunnah)

Simpanan emas yg dimiliki juga bole digunakan untuk menunaikan haji 2 tahun selepas membeli emas dengan wang simpanan KWSP... :D 

Sekali lagi Wang Sunnah sarankan supaya SANDARKAN setiap RM pada EMAS.. Insya Allah... Bersusah2 dahulu... Bersenang- senang kemudian.. Segala yg baik datang dari Allah... Segala kekurangan dari kami.. Semoga nota kalini dapat dimanfaatkan oleh semua... Amin!

Pengasas Wang Sunnah;
Zailiya Mohamad Yatim 0166160951
Marzlishah B. Zubir @ Omar 0166160952
FB : Wang Sunnah
Blog : http://rahsiawangsunnah.blogspot.com

Tuesday 4 October 2011

Trump Accepts Gold Instead of Dollars From Tenant

Mengapa Donald Trump pon pilih EMAS dari USD dari penyewa dia!?

Trump said to have RM6 billion in wealth value
“The rent’s too damn high,” to quote Jimmy McMillan, former New York State gubernatorial candidate. 

And for Donald Trump, that’s true when it comes to rent in cold hard dollars, given his sharp criticisms of the Federal Reserve’s open fire hydrant of dollar printing and the Obama Administration’s fiscal policies. 

Which is why, for the first time ever, Trump will accept today gold bullion instead of dollars for a lease deposit from his newest tenant in one of his marquee properties, 40 Wall Street, a 70-story skyscraper in Manhattan’s Financial District that at one time was the tallest building in the city until the Chrysler Building surpassed it. Trump will accept the gold at an event in the lobby of the Trump Tower at 725 Fifth Avenue.

Trump Tower
Usually, Trump gets a certified check for a security deposit when leasing space in one of his office towers. But we’ll have a ‘First on Fox’ exclusive interview with Trump today as he accepts gold bullion worth about $200,000 from Michael Haynes, chief executive of precious metals dealer APMEX. The gold payment was APMEX’s idea — Trump’s press office says Trump has been bullish on gold due to his concerns about the value of the U.S. dollar. 

Donald Trump accepts gold bullion worth about $200,000 from Michael Haynes, chief executive of precious metals dealer APMEX.   

The gold is the security deposit for a 10-year commercial lease of the entire 50th floor at 40 Wall Street. 

The building is also known as The Trump Building. Trump bought and restored the building in 1995. 

The gold bars are 999.9 pure and weigh 32.15 troy ounces each. 

APMEX’s lease maths out at about $50 a square foot, says Haynes.

Trump knows if he still accept FIAT MONEY from the tenant, his wealth will SHRINK!
“Trump is a smart guy, and he’ll realize that taking gold is a better idea than taking cash,” Haynes says. 

Trump said in a statement: “It’s a sad day when a large property owner starts accepting gold instead of the dollar. The economy is bad, and Obama’s not protecting the dollar at all….If I do this, other people are going to start doing it, and maybe we’ll see some changes.